Monday, December 30, 2019
Six ways to Sunday
Sunday, December 15, 2019
Mail order, trust
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Plutocracy - Anand Giridharadas and Preet Bharara
Related to my own experiences, there's a valuable discussion in Preet Bharara's podcast conversation with Anand Giridharadas, related to Giridharadas' latest book Winners Take All. I'll advise that some of the best commentary is towards the end. At the beginning, most of Bharara's hypothetical scenarios are inadequate, but the challenge of inventing a suitable hypothetical scenario, and the answers to those hypothetical scenarios give you a glimpse of the magnitude of the problem.
Bharara is not just playing devil's advocate. The American Dream is part of what keeps the US economy going, but it's also created a hollowness to the economy that has led to major and minor collapses. I agree with Bharara that motivation is an extremely valuable thing. I disagree with some of Giridharadas' solutions or ideas that eliminating motivation might be good. My take is that the goal is not to eliminate motivation, but to make the motivation realistic - a stable economy cannot be based on the notion that everyone is going to win the lottery in the near future. And the point of the book is that the goal is to promote democracy; not plutocracy.*
*democracy itself is showing some of its weaknesses lately, but part of the problem is the influence which has risen as in the book's title Winners Take All. There is never perfection, but there are goals worth working towards; a better democracy being preferable to plutocracy, monarchy, or dictatorship.
Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Kiteboarding - update
Monday, August 26, 2019
Baby culture
So while some places are considering banning plastic straws, in the land where having children is mandatory, I wonder how many of these pregnancy tests are going into the electronic waste bin versus landfill? Why am I not happy for the young couple? Why are environmentalists such killjoys?! This device... well, it's slightly worse (more electronic waste) than the music-playing greeting card. Of course I'm happy for them. But I'm a bit shocked at the evolution of pregnancy tests from frogs to rabbits to whether it turns blue to... electronic waste? Are environmentalists really killjoys? Somehow we need to repackage the message to compete with the marketing of electronic waste - for the future of the children whose existence is being detected.
Saturday, August 24, 2019
Global trade - autos; oil
"The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was founded in Baghdad, Iraq, with the signing of an agreement in September 1960 by five countries namely Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. They were to become the Founder Members of the Organization." OPEC
How about... OAPEC?
"The 1973 oil crisis began in October 1973 when the members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries proclaimed an oil embargo. The embargo was targeted at nations perceived as supporting Israel during the Yom Kippur War. The initial nations targeted were Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States with the embargo also later extended to Portugal, Rhodesia and South Africa. By the end of the embargo in March 1974, the price of oil had risen nearly 400%, from US$3 per barrel to nearly $12 globally; US prices were significantly higher."
Wikipedia
And just for the record: (OAPEC*) "Member countries include Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. (Egypt’s membership was suspended in 1979, but it was readmitted in 1989. Tunisia ceased to be a member in 1987.)"
Britannica
Here's a nice graph, with the results of the oil embargo being the blip in the middle. Production in the US has risen substantially with the discovery of the Williston Basin, but the US is still not producing as much as it consumes. And large vehicles are still as popular as ever.
Monday, August 19, 2019
Economics - ownership vs labor
Monday, July 8, 2019
Australia's quiet agenda
As a direct personal experience with how the system works, when I was approaching the date to apply for citizenship, the news reported that they were considering changing the requirement to an extra five years of residency. There was no specific legislation or bill cited; just "The Prime Minister has said...". Yet on the basis of that, I was told by the immigration department that they were no longer processing any applications pending resolution of this proposal. I waited. And after waiting some more, decided I should just file my paperwork anyway. I had to pay a processing fee, still not knowing whether that fee might be refunded. Later I heard that it was definite - the required time as a permanent resident before one could apply for citizenship had been extended to five years. It sounded like I was not going to be allowed to be a citizen for another three years. But then, later, it was announced that those eligible by a certain date would still be allowed to apply. Was it a bill that passed? It all seemed like someone's whim. Was the bill passed and then amended? In spite of how important this issue was for many people, it was not reported, other than indirectly.
At least now I know there are bills, written down and published online - not just politicians in a back room debating things, and in public, shouting and accusing each other of malfeasance.
Bills before Parliament
Thursday, June 6, 2019
Impeachment or jail?
Sunday, June 2, 2019
Kiteboarding - launching into a hobby
What are the surprises I've found? Most obvious, to the casual observer it appears that the kiteboarder's propulsion is due to holding onto a bar. This observation is misleading, and becomes the first major point in learning to kiteboard. The power of the kite is transmitted to the kiteboarder primarily by lines that go to a metal hook worn on a belt near the waist. Beginners generally attach the hook with a harness similar to used in rock climbing. More advanced riders attach the hook with a belt around the lower waist, leaving the legs with more freedom. Since beginners generally spend more time with the kite higher in the air, the waist harness tends to ride up and press uncomfortably against the ribs. So the first lesson involves developing the instinct to let go of the bar, not hang onto it! And a second part of letting go is developing the instinct of activating the quick-release so that an out-of-control kite doesn't drag you somewhere unsafe.
Letting go of the bar leads to the first instance where I believe I wasted some money on the learning curve. I had read, and was convinced by the first kite shop I went to that I should buy a trainer kite (or at least rent one). To be honest, I think it was a waste of money. The rationale for a trainer kite is to learn how to steer the kite. The reality is two-fold against that. First, the training kite is much smaller and steers differently from the regular kite. Not only does the normal kite have some lag due to the larger size and longer lines; there is also a major difference in the power, and how you must react to and control that power. Second, the full-size kite will transmit its power to the hook connected to your waist, with the bar being used only for steering and trim adjustments. The learner kite I rented and bought had a center line for de-powering the kite, but this was very different from having a center line that's the primary power-connection to the kite. Unless you want a kite to use later for pulling snow skis or a skateboard (which cannot be done anywhere there are power lines), my advice is to buy yourself a lesson that includes equipment rather than buying a learner kite. This will give you a much better sense of whether the sport is for you.
My initial thoughts were to buy the kite from the store that would throw in a free lesson, and off-you-go to practice on your own. After dealing with a $300 learner kite, I decided to take a different route before investing another estimated $3000 in equipment. Another outlet offered a package deal of three lessons - or you could buy one lesson and then decide whether you wanted the package deal. That's what I did. After the first lesson, I definitely wanted more - because the first lesson was only on the beach! The second lesson was in the water, but I felt like I was going to drown several times coping with the kite as well as an instructor who was by necessity attached to me and not necessarily helping with my balance in the water. The third lesson was in a boat that took us out into the bay and followed us as we flogged around in the water. I was pretty nervous about being in the middle of the bay, but the boat driver was amazing and it was very reassuring having a boat with assistance via radio-helmet; ready to pluck us out of the water when we'd had enough flogging. One of the big lessons of that day was how far you drift in the water when you're trying to get your equipment together and kite back into the air.
Out in the bay, after four hours of previous lessons, I was probably up on the board for about three seconds. I spent a lot more time wrestling with the board trying to get it onto my feet. The big thrill / surprise / fright out there in the bay was accidentally looping the kite, causing it to yank my body from the water and shoot me across the surface 4-5 meters. I probably did this 3-4 times. I got a lot of practice re-launching the kite from the water, including one time when it landed on the trailing rather than leading edge. This requires different tactics for turning the kite over.
In the first two lessons - on land and learning to body-drag in the water without a board - it didn't matter whether the kite was slightly underpowered. But in the third lesson, the size of the kite and the size of the board had to be appropriate for the weight of the person. For this reason, they would generally take out two students of approximately the same weight so they could share equipment. The other guy with me had had previous lessons a couple of times and was much farther along the learning curve. He got up on the board a few times - though not for a long distance. The parting advice he was given: if you can find a place where there's water shallow enough to stand after you crash, you're good enough to practice on your own. The advice I was given? Keep practicing learning how to control the kite - which is something that requires a full-size kite to do. I decided it was time to buy equipment so I could practice on the beach or in shallow water.
I ended up getting a new kite, new harness, and used board. After having the board in the water, I am happy to report that the board I bought is thinner than the one used during lessons, so it has less flotation and is easier to maneuver to get onto my feet. Beginners usually use larger boards, and later, these boards can still be useful for lower wind situations. I bought a new kite because it came with a warranty, and a new harness because I liked the style and fit of a particular model.
I live fairly close to the water, but via the lessons and subsequently, I've learned more about critical weather factors. One big factor is though a kiteboard can go upwind, it cannot do this as effectively as a sailboat. This creates some critical safety factors which are common sense, but you don't think about going in. Until you are very experienced, you're going to be drifting downwind. This means for the duration of your session, the wind should be parallel to the beach or at an angle blowing towards the beach (completely perpendicular isn't optimal either). A kiteboarder must always be aware of what's a couple of line lengths downwind, or as you move farther into the water, where you will end up if something goes wrong and you are forced to either drift or swim in. Mind you, beginner kites currently have an inflated edge, so the kite can potentially be used as a float. And even if you're sitting on the kite, you can pull one edge up to make it into a sail. But the wind direction is what will take you back to shore, out to sea, or into a place you don't want to go.
I was aware when I took lessons that it was the end of summer. The reliable, thermal sea breeze driven by land heating up would be ending. In the weeks since then I've been watching the weather continuously, learning how the wind shifts directions as fronts pass through, and figuring out which beaches are best for which wind directions. Some of the people who give lessons have left the southern hemisphere winter and headed for northern hemisphere summer; following more reliable breezes.
Overall, kiteboarding is a sport that works best and allows you to progress if you live near a large body of water that offers non-turbulent wind (generally flowing towards the land). If you took a week-long holiday to somewhere with reliable wind; lessons were offered and you had access to equipment all week, you would potentially be up on the board by the end of the week. After three lessons, when I bought equipment and took it out on my own, I realized that the instructor had launched the kite for me every time - so I didn't have the critical details on launching. I watched some videos, but also, another hour of free lesson came with the purchase. This ended up stretching into 90 minutes, and the instructor also taught my wife how to help me launch the kite. Still, on our own we had trouble launching, but realized it was because the wind in that location was turbulent - part of it coming from over land and part of it streaming around a headland. Also in the post-purchase session, the instructor informed me that I had been attaching the lines incorrectly; a loop goes over a knot, but what happens when an end has a loop AND a knot?? I did do it consistently enough that the kite could fly, though maybe not optimally.
Why kiteboarding? I water skied when I was young. I love being in the water. I've also sailed, and who doesn't like flying kites?! It seemed like the best of all of that. When I first decided to learn I was living in a tiny apartment, so I was happy to pursue something with equipment that wouldn't take up much space. I can load it onto my motorcycle. Learning to control the power of the kite is a bit trickier than I expected. Having it accidentally launch you out of the water into the air is exhilarating. This could be fatal if it happens on shore, which is why lessons are critical. There are plenty of accident videos on YouTube - I would say it's best not to watch these before taking lessons. There are also lots of lesson videos, but the problem with learning through various videos is you don't know what details were left out of any particular video; it's better to use them as a review. A reputable instructor will cover and maybe even over-emphasize certain safety practices. Many of the accident videos are people who may have been self-taught or decided not to heed various safety practices. Also the new equipment has more safety and stability features built in than older equipment. The best spots to kiteboard near major cities are starting to get crowded - though still not as crowded as the surf breaks.
Sunday, March 24, 2019
America's firearm-free zones: Congress, Courthouses, Stadiums...
This morning's thoughts were about issues surrounding terrorism and firearm-free zones. One terrorism-related matter is the question of strangers in our midst. There are those who promote xenophobia; fear of strangers, as the answer to terrorism. But some terrorists (especially the xenophobia-promoting terrorists) are well known to their community or victims. Some terrorists have long suffered abuse and seek revenge; others may even be seen as heroes doing battle against those outside their faith.
The social vibrancy of cities is in no small part due to the number of people seeking to escape social traditions and try something different. Of course, traditionalists point to this as the root of moral decay, but this breaking from tradition may also contain the seeds of social progress (which fundamentalists may loathe). Cities are essentially places where strangers converge for commerce or myriad other reasons. Those from smaller, traditional places embrace the commerce, sporting, and some of the artistic exchanges, but are uneasy surrounded by strangers, those of different ethnicities, and those from different moral paradigms or religions.
Few in the United States question why Congress, Court Houses, and sports stadiums need to be firearm-free. Such are places where the heat of rhetoric or competition must be settled without the intervention of fatal force, and civilization relies upon acceptance of the outcome. Though there is a problem with post-sporting event riots, the advocates for one team rarely scour the town killing advocates for the opposition. The ground rule of no weapons in Congress, Court Houses, and sports stadiums is rarely questioned, and reliance upon armed security guards to enforce the measure is accepted without heated debate.
Beyond this core of civic temples, the possession of firearms and right to kill one another becomes a heated debate. The thought that I had - what if a neighborhood wanted to make itself a firearm-free zone, and even extend this policy to those charged with security? One notion is that the zone would have to be car-free as well, since drive-by shooting would be an easy way around the rule. If a zone were to be serious, it might also require airport / courthouse / stadium level inspection of those entering and leaving the zone; suitcases x-rayed; metal detectors? Unless the zone contained a hospital, it seems this would be difficult to enforce 24/7 unless entry points were limited and the zone large enough to fund a 24/7 checkpoint. But like Congress, court houses, and stadiums, it might be worth making some larger zones firearm free. Everyone has seen the science fiction images of cities under giant domes - this would not be to that level, but it's an interesting thought. Related clickbait: Top 10 Car-Free Places in the World
Monday, March 18, 2019
Ask not what your country should do
Monday, March 11, 2019
Kite-surfing, lessons 1 & 2
Imagine you have grown a new umbilical cord. Now imagine you're being dragged into the waves by your umbilical cord. That's lesson 2.
Learning to kite-board has been on my back burner for seven years or so - dating from my time in San Francisco. My first sighting of kite surfers was more than ten years ago along the coast just north of Santa Cruz. Later I moved to San Francisco, and witnessed a shift on the bay from sailboards to kite-boards. While sailboarding looked fun, my apartment didn't have room for that kind of equipment. After I got a decent, stable job, taking kite-surfing lessons in Alameda entered my summer to-do list. This wasn't the only to-do item waylaid by two years of dating across the Pacific.
Lesson 1 was fairly low-key - completely on the beach learning to set up and control the kite.
Lesson 2 I thought I was going to drown several times. Upwind body drag? As you might imagine, going downwind is easy. But upwind is an essential skill, unless you are willing to abandon a dropped board and drifting to shore. After awhile in the water you might realize you should have learned to go upwind to retrieve your board. So as I mentioned the umbilical cord, the kite is attached to a hook near your navel. Seriously. Near center of gravity. On a good day, you would be happy to have the kite pull you up out of the water and ski along the surface. You might even pop into the air. But you also might lose your board. Hence the upwind body drag.
The whole idea is to make your body into a plank, extend one arm forward so your plank becomes a keel, while your other arm controls the kite. Part of the trick is getting your body on its side while balancing the forces of the water pushing against you and the kite pulling you on an angle from your belly button. Add to this equation an instructor who is tethered to you and the kite as well, giving you advice as your head starts plowing into and under waves. Because if you're going into the wind, you're heading into the waves. Real-life, you're not actually going straight into the wind - just like a sail boat, there's an optimal angle. Your natural reaction is to try to swim, to keep your head above water. But the goal is to not swim, but use the force of the water on your outstretched hand, along with the lift of the kite to keep your head up. We did three rounds out into the water and back to the shore. The first round, on the way back we had drifted too close to some posts holding up a shark net, so the instructor had to take the kite while I swam back to shore. As you might imagine, I was exhausted. The second round, things fell into place, and somehow I pulled it off. We got back to shore not too far from where we had left it - not upwind, but definitely not much downwind (technically, the wind was at an angle to the shore, so maybe we really did land upwind). The third round, I thought I was going to drown again. The kite hook was pressing into my solar plexus and it was like the movie where the Aztecs thrust their hand into someone's chest and pull out their heart. All of that dragging in the water had loosened my harness. So we stopped and I tightened that up. Then I got a cramp in my leg. But then, I somehow managed to body drag back to shore in good form. In hindsight, we enter the water near a breakwater - things were not so complicated without waves. But add waves, even smallish ones, and there's the issue of your head going under them. I'm exaggerating. At no time was my head more than three inches below water. But water boarding is a real thing. The breakwater and waves are the reason my third round ended on a good note - returning to shore is traveling with the waves, rather than against them. We also practiced figure-eights - the power stroke used to pull you up on your board. But we didn't have a board yet. Having the kite pull you up out of the water is fun; a huge contrast to having it drag your head into waves. But that takes you downwind; not upwind. Next lesson... the board!
Note: I posted on social media, after Lesson 2 I felt like I had dislocated my liver. The leg that had cramped was sore, probably from trying to swim and rotate my body against the force of the kite. Parts of my spine not normally sore were. Two days later I was still re-stretching the odd inner-calf muscle that had cramped, and my other leg also needed exercise to get back to normal. But my liver was feeling back in place, and I was feeling like a survivor, ready for Lesson 3 !