Saturday, April 11, 2020

As the United States becomes number one*

*in the number of deaths.

While the election of Donald Trump seemed like a step backwards for the United States, his actual leadership (or lack thereof) is what diminished the US as a consistent anchor in global politics.  Similar to the domestic front, the attention and global markets shifted from "what is the United States going to do" to "what kind of mood is Donald in today?"  "Who will be the next person in his administration to get fired?"

Still, because of US economic and military might, other leaders were required to humor him, and stay on top of the tweets, even as they sorted out how they were going to manage in a world that no longer had the US as a consistent global voice.  And of course, every country has its own set of priorities.  The pandemic has only heightened that trend, with the only upside being that Trump has virtually zero (actually, less than zero) standing in this global situation.  While the US consulate has made some posts about US assistance to other countries, the headlines have been dominated by every country scrambling to save their own people (and Republicans in the US pushing policies to increase deaths in some countries they consider enemies).  At least in Australia, the only major collaborative news was about China sending a team to Italy.   And so, it seems this pandemic, at least as far as the Trump administration is concerned, has cemented the US position as a non-leader.  Even Trump himself has tried to push his "states rights" agenda towards saying that the management of the pandemic is up to governors; not a federal issue.  While another administration might have thought globally in response to a global issue, as I say, Trump's response has been less than zero; overall increasing the likelihood of deaths. 

Does this mean the end of an empire?  The United States is still a large population with a large economy and that doesn't end overnight.  Regardless of whether the US has good leadership or not, its economy will still carry weight, even if its military becomes dysfunctional and demoralized.  But lack of leadership will definitely be a factor in recovery.  Economists and Congress seem to have grabbed the reins, but in the absence of any sense of shared destiny, the US recovery may take the same path as its initial response to the danger - too much partisan squabbling and not enough coherent action.  Inside the United States, the last catastrophe was known as the sub-prime mortgage crisis.  Outside the US, it's referred to as the GFC - Global Financial Crisis.  Even if the US is not a leader, it drags the rest of the world along whatever trajectory.  In that regard, seeing the decline of the US as a global leader is like the death of a drug cartel leader.  While it's an opportunity for someone, it means a lot of unrest and violence as they claw their way into the void. 

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